Friday, December 11, 2009

Option Activity Alert: Bears Not Impressed by New York Community Bancorp, Inc.

. During the past five days, traders on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) have bought to open 9,282 puts on NYB, compared to just 4,227 calls. The stock's five-day ISE put/call volume ratio of 2.20 reveals that puts bought to open have more than doubled calls during this time frame.

The equity's 10-day ISE put/call volume ratio is even more skeptically skewed, arriving today at 2.46. This reading ranks higher than 72.8% of other such ratios taken during the past 52 weeks, suggesting that option players have snapped up puts over calls at a faster pace less than 28% of the time.

However, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) indicates that bearish sentiment on NYB is far from peak levels. The equity's SOIR is resting at a slim 0.64, which ranks in just the 14th annual percentile. In other words, short-term option traders have been more optimistically aligned only 14% of the time during the past year.

In the December series, peak call open interest of 6,809 contracts can be found at the 12 strike. Meanwhile, the most popular front-month put is the 13 strike, with 5,059 contracts outstanding. With NYB trading just narrowly above $13 at last check, this configuration confirms the generally skeptical mood indicated by the ISE data.

After checking out the rest of the stock's sentiment backdrop, the seeming disparity between NYB's SOIR and the recent buy-to-open ISE activity is resolved. Short interest jumped by 8.2% during the past month, and ticked higher by 3.7% during the most recent reporting period. Now, these bearish bets account for a healthy 13.1% of the equity's float.

Not only does this short interest data confirm that many Wall Street denizens are expecting NYB to decline, it also casts new light on the heavy call open interest suggested by the low SOIR reading. With short interest rising precipitously during the past month, it's possible that some of the calls lingering in open interest were purchased in order to hedge short stock positions, rather than to speculate on bullish price action.

NYB has attracted attention this week due to its recent purchase of failed AmTrust Bank. Many analysts have voiced their skepticism about the deal, arguing that it takes NYB out of its element, but CEO Joseph Ficolara is standing by the decision. "Let's be real about this, a thrift in Florida is easier to run than a commercial bank in New York," he told Dow Jones.

While analysts and investors are expressing their reservations about the deal, NYB is actually enjoying a new foothold on the charts north of former resistance. The stock broke through stubborn pressure in the $12.50 region earlier this week, and this level could now switch roles to act as support. However, the $14 area looms large; this region capped NYB's progress back in January and February, and could now resume its role as a technical ceiling.


Another point of concern is NYB's 20-month moving average, which is directly above the stock's current price. This trendline hasn't been toppled on a monthly closing basis since June 2008, and it has effectively kept a lid on NYB's progress this week.


Judging by this troublesome technical setup, the rising pessimism toward NYB is richly deserved. If the stock proves it has the mettle to break through multiple layers of resistance, this bearish sentiment could potentially unwind in the form of fresh buying power. However, until the shares manage a convincing breakout above these looming roadblocks, these skeptics will have little motivation to back away from their negative stance.



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